Florida, once considered the largest swing state in the country, firmly cemented its status as a solid red state Tuesday night. Voter turnout hit a 24 year high with 78.76% of Florida’s 13,949,168 voters casting ballots. Republican turnout beat expectations with R’s carrying a +11% turnout advantage at the ballot box. Political operatives within the state attribute the “red wave” in Florida and throughout the country to voter dissatisfaction with the economy and continued inflation.

This dramatic showing upended Democrat projections, specifically for state House races where they anticipated taking back several seats they lost in the 2022 cycle.

Donald Trump had his best performance on the ballot in Florida to date besting Harris by over 13% winning 56% of the vote to Harris’s 42% Put into perspective, Trump garnered over 6 million more votes than Harris and flipped Miami-Dade County red by being the first Presidential candidate to win the historically deep blue county in over 30 years.

U.S. Sen. Scott also won his most decisive victory since entering state politics 14 years ago, defeating Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 13 points, 56%-43%.

Florida Democrats had thought that Scott might be more vulnerable this election cycle because he had never run in a Presidential Election year, which historically brings out more Democratic voters.

In the Florida Senate, sitting Senator Corey Simon won his election against trail lawyer Darryl Parks with 55% of the vote to Parks 42%. This was the most competitive and expensive Seante race with the trial bar pouring in millions for Parks against Florida’s business organizations, like the Florida Chamber and Associated Industries of Florida, doing the same on behalf of Simon. An estimated $15 million was spent in the Florida Panhandle, one of the cheapest media markets in the state, on SD 3. The Senate will remain under Republican control with 28 Republicans and 12 Democrats.

The Florida House proved the most interesting chamber of the night with Speaker Danny Perez’s campaign team beating all expectations. House Republicans were anticipated to lose five or more seats heading into election night. They held on to all the hotly contested seats in Orlando, Palm Beach, and Miami -Dade and even managed to pick up a seat by taking out Tom Keen, who was recently elected in a Special Election in the Spring. Representative Carolina Amnesty, who is facing criminal charges for fraud, was the only loss for the Republicans last night. House District 93 appears to be the only race in recount territory with Republican Anne Gerwig leading over Democrat incumbent Katherine Waldron by one-half of 1% or 358 votes. The House will maintain their supermajority with 85 Republicans returning and 35 Democrats.

The final surprise of the night came with the defeat of Amendment 3 to legalize recreational marijuana and Amendment 4 to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution. Florida law requires constitutional amendments to receive 60% of the vote to pass. Despite repeated polling showing enough support to pass, Amendment 3 fell five points shy receiving 55.89% and Amendment 4 coming in with 57.15% of the vote. It has been reported that Amendment 3 was the most expensive ballot initiative in the nation with over $150 million spent, most of which was provided by Truelieve.

Leading into the election, Amendments 3 and 4 faced significant opposition from Governor DeSantis who deployed taxpayer resources to oppose the measures and spent millions on ads against it. The Governor argued Amendment 3 created the equivalent of a monopoly on marijuana and would stink up Florida’s public spaces and maintained that Amendment 4 was too extreme and written vaguely which would leave the state unable to regulate the abortion industry creating harm to women. The Governor’s significant popularity throughout the state made his opposition especially impactful and undoubtedly lead to both amendments falling short of the required 60%.

The defeat of Amendments 3 and 4 will not impact any current state law leaving medical marijuana access as is and the state’s six-week abortion ban intact.

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